With the 2025 hurricane season approaching, the Source spoke with Jamie Rhome, deputy director of the National Hurricane Center, about preparedness tips for the U.S. Virgin Islands and new updates to the center’s forecasting tools to improve public safety and awareness.
As deputy director, Rhome’s role involves helping “to develop NHC’s long-term strategies and to define and coordinate much of the organization’s annual planning and day-to-day execution of work and budget,” according to information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
“[As the deputy director, I oversee] the day-to-day operations of the center [and] ensure everything’s functioning [properly],” Rhome said. “The deputy [will] fill in for the NHC director if they’re out of the office or need to take leave, [or have an] emergency,” he explained. [Therefore,] I need to be ready to assume [the role] and responsibility [of the director] at a moment’s notice,” he added.
What’s New This Year?
Rhome shared details about several important updates to the NHC forecasting products, including the issuing of storm watches and warnings up to 72 hours before a possible cyclone’s landfall. Rhome explained that the added advance time to issue storm alerts could be especially beneficial for Caribbean islands, including the USVI, given the islands’ vulnerability to cyclones and the potential rapid intensification of hurricanes.
“[In the past, the NHC] only initiated [cyclone] advisories when [a storm] had fully formed, and systems that formed close to land [had] very limited to no lead time [to issue watches and warnings],” Rhome stated. “[This year,] we’re going to extend [the issuance of advisories] to three days, [up from the current lead time of 48 hours],” he said.
“[Therefore, for tropical] systems that have not yet [fully] developed, but have the potential to rapidly develop near land, [we will increase] the lead time of the forecast [for] any associated watches and warnings out further in time,” Rhome noted.
In addition to increasing the lead time for cyclone advisories, other updates to NHC forecast products include upgrades to the “cone of uncertainty” of a cyclone’s potential track, which will now include an experimental graphic depicting inland weather alerts as well as the traditional coastal advisories. A map displaying the risk of rip currents for active tropical cyclones will also become available this year.
According to the NHC, other improvements include expanding the forecast for hurricane-force winds up to three days in advance of a potential cyclone:
“NHC and [the Central Pacific Hurricane Center] are extending their sustained hurricane-force (74 mph; 64 knots) wind radii forecasts [a measure of a cyclone’s wind field] to day 3 (72 hours) in the Forecast/Advisory in 2025. Previously, these forecasts were provided out to 2 days (48 hours). Tropical storm (39 mph, 34 knots) and 58 mph (50 knots) wind radii are provided out to 5 days (120 hours).”
Hurricane Preparedness
Regarding hurricane preparedness, Rhome emphasized the importance of being ready ahead of hurricane season and preparing for the possibility of extended electrical outages.
“Power outages are becoming an increasing [challenge during and after] hurricanes,” Rhome said. “Losing power in the Caribbean during a passing hurricane is certainly not news, but what we’re seeing are more situations happening because of the power outages [and dealing with] oppressive heat in the days after a hurricane has passed and without air conditioning or fans that rely on power,” Rhome stated.
“We’re seeing more people succumb to heat-related [illnesses, including] heat stroke,” he acknowledged. “We’re also seeing situations where people are lacking easy access to health care, or the loss of power is making it harder for them to take care of themselves, [or an individual] may be [utilizing a] respirator, or a diabetic [individual may] need to keep their insulin cool,” he said. “[There is a] myriad of cascading issues that come from the absence of power, [and the NHC encourages individuals to] think about what [they] would do to take care of [themselves and their families] for not just one day without power, but [possibly] for a week or even two weeks from a major hurricane.”
Rhome said that one of the most important steps to take to prepare for hurricane season is to assemble an emergency supply kit and take additional preparedness steps, including making a plan for communication with family and friends, particularly if communications are unavailable after a storm.
“We’re asking people to step beyond stocking up your hurricane kit,” Rhome said. “Getting nonperishable food and water – that’s sort of a baseline, bare, essential preparedness step — but we want people to [prepare beyond the basic steps],” he continued.
“For example, [regarding communication if mobile phones are not available, consider writing] your emergency contacts on a piece of paper, so if your cell phone is not usable, you can still have [important numbers and] information,” he added.
Seasonal Forecast and Predictions
NOAA plans to release this year’s hurricane season predictions in May, and individuals will be able to locate the forecast on the administration’s official website.
Several weather organizations, including AccuWeather and Colorado State University’s Tropical Meteorology Project, have predicted a potentially busy season. Still, while seasonal forecasts are valuable for gaining an idea of what a season may look like, Rhome advises that individuals should not put too much weight on them and simply be as ready as possible for any potential storms.
“Often, people put too much emphasis on that seasonal forecast, [however, that forecast is] telling you about the overall activity for the entire season over the entire [Atlantic] basin,” Rhome explained. “[Seasonal forecasts are] not telling you anything specific about the Virgin Islands [or] whether the Virgin Islands will be threatened,” he said.
Rhome concluded his remarks by reminding individuals that while NOAA and the NHC experts can provide life-saving forecasts, meteorologists cannot precisely predict when or where a cyclone may strike, and we all must be ready for storms.
“[No one] can predict [with absolute certainty whether] a hurricane is going to impact our homes this year, but we need to prepare for one, and we need to be diligent and do it every year,” Rhome asserted.
Staying Informed About Weather Events
Hurricane season begins on June 1 and runs through November 30, and USVI residents and visitors are encouraged to be prepared. In addition to obtaining weather information from the NWS and NOAA, the local weather forecast for the U.S. Virgin Islands is regularly updated on the Source Weather Page and VI Source YouTube Channel. Individuals can also find helpful weather information and alerts from the Virgin Islands Territorial Emergency Management Agency.
The full Source video interview with NHC Deputy Director Rhome is available here.
