Recent rainfall across the region has resulted in the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico remaining free of drought. While some relatively dry conditions have been observed, both U.S. territories are expected to stay drought-free through Spring.
“As the northeastern Caribbean dry season progresses, strong trade winds have increased the frequency of rain showers across eastern and northern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, keeping the soils wet and water storage sufficient, [however,] rainfall activity was limited for the southern and western portions of Puerto Rico,” according to information contained in an update released on Feb. 27 from the National Integrated Drought Information System, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and numerous partners, including the U.S. Department of Agriculture and the University of the Virgin Islands. (A complete list of individuals who contributed to the report is listed at the bottom of the report.)
The drought update explained that Puerto Rico and the USVI have remained free of drought since early 2024. Even with the dry season underway and with several areas starting to experience some dryness, including the southern and western areas of Puerto Rico, rainfall has been plentiful across both U.S. territories overall:
“Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands have been drought free since late April 2024 and late February 2024, respectively.”
The report continued, “In Puerto Rico, above-normal rainfall has been observed for most of the east, eastern interior, and northeast sections. However, rainfall deficits are beginning to increase in the southern plains and, more noticeably, in the northwest. While most streams are running near normal, water is being depleted from the wells in southern Puerto Rico and from Guajataca Dam in the northwest. Additionally, concerns for fire ignition and spreading are increasing in these areas, which have drier soils. Nevertheless, Abnormally Dry (D0) conditions have not developed yet, as this dryness is considered typical for the early months of the year. In areas where soils are dry, vegetation is showing signs of stress.”
The drought report also stated, “Rainfall amounts are in the normal range, based on data collected from the Community Collaborative Rain, Hail, and Snow Network. [These amounts are] keeping the soils wet and the vegetation healthy. In the U.S. Virgin Islands, recent intermittent rains have improved groundwater levels on St. Thomas and St. Croix. St John has had a small loss of groundwater in the last month but overall is still quite wet,” according to the drought report.
Benefits and Challenges for Farmers
The report noted that farmers and agriculturalists across both U.S. territories have experienced some benefits from recent rain, including the production of bananas and grass growth. The update indicated that rivers across Puerto Rico have recently been at primarily normal levels.
However, several challenges have also been reported because of rainfall, such as fungi and bacteria growth on crops. Furthermore, difficulties have been described across areas now beginning to have drier conditions, such as the southern portion of Puerto Rico, which has been experiencing an increased risk of wildfires.
“Frequent showers led to wet soils across most of the eastern and north-central portions of Puerto Rico,” the report said. “However, these rains were not as common in the northwest and the southern hills of south-central Puerto Rico, where both satellite-derived products and observations from farmers and spotters show dry soils, [and] in areas where soils are dry, vegetation is showing signs of stress,” the report continued.
Across the U.S. Virgin Islands, a similar situation of benefits as well as challenges was reported by agriculturalists across St. Thomas, St. John, and St. Croix:
“St. Thomas: Farmers reported full ponds due to recent storms, and the rain has helped vegetation. Livestock and poultry farmers have access to feed. Guinea grass is drying up due to high winds. Increased rains and saturated soils are resulting in landslides and significant road erosion,” according to the report.
“St. John: Row and specialty crop farmers report heavy and intermittent rain. Some soils are showing signs of distress due to general moisture losses from heat and windy conditions. In January, many focused on clean-up because their farms were submerged underwater during the storms. Some farmers are working on planting microgreens, fruit trees, and quick crops to keep production up and are also rotating crops to prepare for hotter summer months,” the report indicated.
“St. Croix: Many farmers are reporting intermittent rains and showers, which are leading to the loss of soil from erosion. Livestock farmers experiencing high winds are working to plan for feed shortages, which will occur later in the year due to a lack of grass during the hotter months,” the report explained.
Drought is Not Expected in the Coming Months
Although several regions have faced drier weather, the NIDIS does not expect drought conditions to develop over the next few months. However, some locations may be categorized as “Abnormally Dry” soon.
“The North American Multi-Model Ensemble [forecast model system] for spring (March [through] May 2025) indicates a 40 to 50 percent chance of observing slightly wetter-than-normal conditions for portions of Puerto Rico, with near-normal conditions forecast for the Virgin Islands,” the update stated. “Additionally, there is a greater than 70 percent chance that temperatures will remain above normal through the spring season,” the update added.
“[Still,] no drought is expected to develop over the next three months in Puerto Rico or the U.S. Virgin Islands, according to the NOAA Climate Prediction Center’s current Seasonal Drought Outlook,” the report assured. “However, Abnormally Dry (D0) conditions may appear across the southern plains and northwestern Puerto Rico in light of increasing summer temperatures as we transition between seasons.”
Stay Informed About the Weather
The report concluded with information regarding computer forecast models that expect rainfall to be slightly above or near normal levels through May. Warm temperatures are also forecast to affect the local islands over the coming months.
Residents and agriculturalists can stay updated on the latest drought information on the NIDIS website. Additionally, the local weather forecast for the U.S. Virgin Islands is regularly updated on the Source Weather Page and VI Source YouTube Channel.
Individuals can also find helpful weather information and alerts from the National Weather Service and the Virgin Islands Territorial Emergency Management Agency.
