Tropical Depression Unlikely to Strengthen Before Hitting USVI

From all appearances, the combination of strong wind shear and dry air has stalled development of the weather system, Invest 96-L, which is on track to bring rain next week. In fact, the system may not develop at all due to the unfavorable conditions. Satellite photos indicate some shower activity associated with the wave but there is no organization. Aside from the dry air and strong wind shear, the system is being impacted by a large amount of sinking air across the Atlantic Basin that is suppressing significant organization of any tropical disturbances. Virtually all of the forecast models have dropped their projections of intensification, and are now all forecasting that environmental conditions will remain unfavorable for development.

Two of the models project that Invest 96-L will pass through the central and northern Lesser Antilles, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico as a robust tropical wave from Tuesday through Wednesday.

Elsewhere, tropical development is not expected across the Atlantic or the Caribbean for at least the next one to possibly two weeks as environmental conditions will remain unfavorable.

NOAA satellite image of Caribbean weather, August 2, 3019.